dale earnhardt, jr.'s falling out

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. isn't the first sports personality to have a public falling out with his step-mom, but good luck finding another family squabble that's generated as much interest.

Junior's recent announcement that he is leaving Dale Earnhardt, Inc. at the end of the season sent NASCAR nation into full-time speculation mode. Who is Junior going to race for? Will he still drive the #8 car? Will Budweiser continue to be his primary sponsor? What does it mean financially for DEI, Junior, and his new team owner?

The prediction here is that Junior will sign with Richard Childress Racing, the team his father won six Cup titles with prior to his death on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500. Childress and Earnhardt, Sr. were extremely close and Junior has always viewed Childress as a friend and mentor.

Regardless of which team he elects to drive for, Junior is unlikely to be sporting the #8. Car numbers are owned by NASCAR and are assigned to team owners. Although NASCAR reserves the right to revoke or transfer car numbers without an owner's consent, it's unlikely they would take sides in the dispute between Junior and his stepmother, Teresa. One possibility has DEI selling the number to Junior's new car owner. But given the frosty relationship between Junior and Teresa, she may refuse to negotiate just for spite.

Childress also retains the #3, last seen on the black Chevy made famous by the elder Earnhardt. Much of Junior's fandom is urging him to take a seat in the #3 car, but that doesn't appear to be an immediate consideration. Look for Junior to resurrect the #3 only after he wins a championship or two.

If Junior runs a new car number next year, the marketing possibilities are endless. Everyone currently sporting paraphernalia with the #8 will feel the need to replace or add to it with Junior's new number, creating a bonanza for manufacturers. According to Mark Dyer, NASCAR's vice president of licensing, sales of Junior's merchandise jumped 107% in the week following the announcement of his impending move. That figure is virtually certain to increase with a new team.

Jeff Gordon may be the most successful racer in NASCAR today, but Junior is the most popular driver in the hearts and minds of NASCAR nation. That popularity vaulted Junior into SI.com's latest top-ten list of highest-paid U.S. athletes. Junior sat in ninth place last year with income in excess of $25 million.

Add in sales of Junior's merchandise and additional income from his racing company - JR Motorsports - and his total compensation for last year could be double that figure. Junior's total compensation would place him third - behind only Tiger Woods and Formula 1 racer Michael Schumacher - on the list of the world's highest paid athletes.

In addition to the financial benefits that flow from his popularity, Junior will likely bring his new team owner $20 million dollars in sponsorship from Budweiser. Like Junior, Bud's contract with DEI is up at the end of the season and the company is unlikely to abandon its marquee spokesperson. Bud's support of Junior is its second largest commitment to a sports property, exceeded only by its expenditure on the Super Bowl. In an era when the cost to run a full Nextel Cup campaign can exceed $30 million, that's no small consideration.

And what will become of DEI? The company the elder Earnhardt started and Junior legitimized with his two Busch Series titles and 17 Nextel Cup wins, is losing approximately 50% of its revenue. The loss is undeniably a major setback in the short run. Whether DEI can continue to compete with the elite teams in NASCAR remains to be seen. DEI's biggest asset is the Earnhardt legacy, which will continue to carry weight even without the founder's namesake at the wheel.

Junior has vowed to make a decision on his new team by the end of June. Until then, speculation - not Sunoco 110 - will continue to fuel NASCAR nation.

Jordan Kobritz is a former attorney, CPA, and Minor League Baseball team owner. He currently teaches Sport Management and the Business of Sports at Eastern New Mexico University and the University of Wyoming. The Prescott Valley, AZ resident can be reached at jkobritz@mindspring.com