Why Rita should not hit New Orleans

Rita is now a hurricane, and is strengthening as it moves through the Florida Keys. Rita will strengthen further once it enters the Gulf, making it probable that the storm will be a major hurricane before it makes landfall. Because of the devastating impact of Katrina and the vulnerability of New Orleans as the rebuilding effort begins, there has been much concern over what impact Rita will have on the region. While concern is justified because of the threat Rita represents, it is highly unlikely that the storm will strike near enough to New Orleans to do further damage. Typically, hurricanes continually seek a path northward, because the goal of a hurricane is to distribute warm air from the equator to cooler northern latitudes. However, in the case of Rita, this is process will be delayed, because there is a strong high-pressure system, or ridge, over the southern U.S. This ridge should be strong enough to Rita from reaching the northern Gulf Coast--including New Orleans--so Rita will continue to follow steering wind currents westward until this ridge weakens or moves out of the storm’s way. The ridge is moving eastward and projected to begin weakening, so by the end of this week, Rita will be able to slide past the ridge and make a turn northward. At this point, Rita will likely be in the vicinity of the Texas coast, which is why the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center’s projects the storm to curve to the northwest and strike between Corpus Christi and Lake Charles. The worst-case scenario for the hard-hit New Orleans region would be if the ridge were to weaken considerably, and much faster than projected, while at the same time Rita travels across the Gulf significantly slower than forecast. In this case, without the ridge barring the way, Rita would be able to turn north well before it reached Texas. This scenario is unlikely.