In his Country classic, Haggard was crooning about the reasons to quit smoking and drinking.  But the punch line sums up human nature:  We can always rationalize continuing to do something we enjoy, regardless of whether it’s healthy or productive.  So it is for Minor League Baseball players whose dream is to play in the Major Leagues.
Is there a “right” time to quit, to give up that dream?  The short answer is:  It depends.  But one thing is clear:  The road to the show is daunting.
Roughly 1,500 baseball players – the majority drafted by MLB teams and a few who are signed as free agents – enter the professional ranks each year.  Approximately the same number leave the game, voluntarily or otherwise.  Only 11% of Minor League players will spend even a single day in the big leagues and the average MLB career is only 5.6 years according to a study conducted by a research team at the University of Colorado at Boulder.    
Toiling in the Minor Leagues is not for the faint of heart.  The pay is low, starting at $800 per month for the five months that games are actually played, and rising to $2,000 per month for players who make it to Class AAA, the top rung of Minor League ball.  At the lower levels, travel is by bus and although efforts have been made to limit the length of road trips, 10-15 hour bus rides are not uncommon.  The pressure to succeed can be all consuming, which can take a toll on even the most easy going and successful players.  For players with families, the pressure to succeed can be even greater.  
At some point, virtually every Minor Leaguer has asked himself some version of the question, “Am I ever going to make it to the big leagues?”  The answer to that question leads to a follow up one, “When should I call it quits?”  The question is seldom addressed objectively, and the answers differ from one individual to the next.  In addition to making a decision based on family considerations, some players have other career options that may become more attractive as time goes on and the big leagues seem further in the distance.
Justin Humphries, who spent nine years in the Minor Leagues, recently graduated with honors from Columbia University.  At one time, Humphries was a top prospect in the Houston Astros system where he was an All-Star in 2003 at the age of 20.  However, two serious injuries led to multiple surgeries which derailed a career that seemed destined to end in the Major Leagues.  Humphries was released by the Astros in 2006 and finished his career playing in an Independent League and in Australia.  He knows first hand the ups and downs associated with Minor League Baseball and the emotions that virtually every player experiences.
While at Columbia, Humphries conducted a study in an effort to compare the financial status of those who played professional baseball with their contemporaries who didn’t.  Focusing his study on his 2001 draft class, Humphries found that after 10 years, baseball players earned, on average, 40% less than their classmates who had chosen to do something else.  
When we spend time doing one thing, we give up the opportunity to do something else. Economists have coined a phrase to describe that phenomenon:  opportunity cost.   While Humphries’ study is a limited sample size, it’s reasonable to conclude there is an opportunity cost associated with playing professional baseball.  
Despite the long odds, an optimist says if I make it to the Major Leagues, I not only fulfill a dream, but I’m financially set for life.  While the former may be true, reality says the latter isn’t always the case.  Some players who fulfill their dream spend little time on a big league roster before being shuttled back to the Minors or find themselves out of the game completely.
When to quit on the dream of playing in the big leagues?  Even though Humphries’ study suggests the sooner the better, there’s no answer that fits everyone.   But most Minor Leaguers subscribe to Haggard’s philosophy:  The reasons for quitin, don’t outnumber all the reasons why.  

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